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Sam LaPorta props — Week 9
TE · DET vs MIA · Sun Nov 8 1:00 PM ET · updated Nov 7, 11:35 AM ET
O/U 50.5DET -7Implied 28.8 pts
Model projections
| Prop | Model pick | Model | Projection | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | Over 3.5 | 57% | 4.2 | -161 (62%) |
| Receiving Yards | Under 48.5 | 52% | 52.9 | -114 (53%) |
| Anytime TD | Yes | 42% | — | +190 (35%) |
What drives the projection
Snap share
90%
Target share
17%
WOPR
0.35
Catch rate
71%
Yards / target
8.3
Carry share
1%
Yards / carry
2
Team pass attempts (proj)
32
Team rush attempts (proj)
36
Model % is the calibrated chance the pick hits at the listed line. Floor and ceiling are the 20th and 80th percentile of the projected outcome. Lines move — check your book before betting.
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