Quentin Johnston props — Week 9

WR · LAC vs HOU · Sun Nov 8 4:05 PM ET · updated Nov 8, 11:31 AM ET

O/U 40.5LAC +4.5Implied 18 pts

Model projections

Prop	Model pick	Model	Projection	Floor–Ceiling	Last 6	Book
Receptions	Under 2.5	51%	2.8	1–4	4/6	-134 (57%)
Receiving Yards	Over 34.5	53%	44.1	15–68	4/6	no line
Anytime TD	Yes	9%	—	—	0/6	+410 (20%)

What drives the projection

Snap share

81%

Target share

15%

WOPR

0.39

Catch rate

46%

Yards / target

7.8

Carry share

Yards / carry

1.5

Team pass attempts (proj)

Team rush attempts (proj)

Model % is the calibrated chance the pick hits at the listed line. Floor and ceiling are the 20th and 80th percentile of the projected outcome. Lines move — check your book before betting.

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