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KC Concepcion props — Week 9
WR · CLE vs NO · Sun Nov 8 1:00 PM ET · updated Nov 8, 11:31 AM ET
O/U 43.5CLE +2.5Implied 20.5 pts
Model projections
| Prop | Model pick | Model | Projection | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | Under 4.5 | 59% | 4.1 | -154 (61%) |
| Receiving Yards | Under 41.5 | 49% | 49 | -121 (55%) |
| Anytime TD | Yes | 17% | — | +275 (27%) |
What drives the projection
Snap share
71%
Target share
20%
WOPR
0.44
Catch rate
67%
Yards / target
7.2
Carry share
5%
Yards / carry
3.8
Team pass attempts (proj)
34
Team rush attempts (proj)
24
Model % is the calibrated chance the pick hits at the listed line. Floor and ceiling are the 20th and 80th percentile of the projected outcome. Lines move — check your book before betting.
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