Justice Hill props — Week 9

RB · BAL vs JAX · Thu Nov 5 8:15 PM ET · updated Nov 8, 11:31 AM ET

O/U 42.5BAL +9.5Implied 16.5 pts

Model projections

Prop	Model pick	Model	Projection	Floor–Ceiling	Last 6	Book
Receptions	Under 2.5	53%	2.6	1–4	3/6	-122 (55%)
Receiving Yards	Under 14.5	49%	18.3	6–28	3/6	-120 (55%)
Anytime TD	Yes	14%	—	—	0/6	+525 (16%)

What drives the projection

Snap share

43%

Target share

11%

WOPR

0.15

Catch rate

68%

Yards / target

4.2

Carry share

10%

Yards / carry

6.5

Team pass attempts (proj)

Team rush attempts (proj)

Model % is the calibrated chance the pick hits at the listed line. Floor and ceiling are the 20th and 80th percentile of the projected outcome. Lines move — check your book before betting.

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