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Josh Downs props — Week 9
WR · IND vs DAL · Sun Nov 8 1:00 PM ET · updated Nov 7, 11:35 AM ET
O/U 51.5IND +6Implied 22.8 pts
Model projections
| Prop | Model pick | Model | Projection | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | Under 4.5 | 62% | 4 | -174 (64%) |
| Receiving Yards | Under 43.5 | 54% | 42.9 | -109 (52%) |
| Anytime TD | Yes | 24% | — | +300 (25%) |
What drives the projection
Snap share
81%
Target share
20%
WOPR
0.49
Catch rate
59%
Yards / target
6.5
Carry share
0%
Yards / carry
7
Team pass attempts (proj)
42
Team rush attempts (proj)
26
Model % is the calibrated chance the pick hits at the listed line. Floor and ceiling are the 20th and 80th percentile of the projected outcome. Lines move — check your book before betting.
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