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Derrick Henry props — Week 9
RB · BAL vs JAX · Thu Nov 5 8:15 PM ET · updated Nov 8, 11:31 AM ET
O/U 42.5BAL +9.5Implied 16.5 pts
Model projections
| Prop | Model pick | Model | Projection | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | Under 66.5 | 58% | 58.5 | -110 (52%) |
| Anytime TD | Yes | 43% | — | +135 (43%) |
What drives the projection
Snap share
56%
Target share
6%
WOPR
0.08
Catch rate
86%
Yards / target
5.4
Carry share
68%
Yards / carry
4
Team pass attempts (proj)
37
Team rush attempts (proj)
21
Model % is the calibrated chance the pick hits at the listed line. Floor and ceiling are the 20th and 80th percentile of the projected outcome. Lines move — check your book before betting.
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