Aaron Jones props — Week 9

RB · MIN vs BUF · Mon Nov 9 8:15 PM ET · updated Nov 8, 11:31 AM ET

O/U 45.5MIN +3.5Implied 21 pts

Model projections

Prop	Model pick	Model	Projection	Floor–Ceiling	Last 6	Book
Receptions	Under 2.5	58%	2.4	1–4	3/6	no line
Receiving Yards	Under 13.5	48%	17.3	6–27	3/6	no line
Rushing Yards	Over 45.5	52%	53.8	24–80	4/6	no line
Anytime TD	Yes	32%	—	—	1/6	+270 (27%)

What drives the projection

Snap share

62%

Target share

11%

WOPR

0.16

Catch rate

71%

Yards / target

4.3

Carry share

55%

Yards / carry

4.2

Team pass attempts (proj)

Team rush attempts (proj)

Model % is the calibrated chance the pick hits at the listed line. Floor and ceiling are the 20th and 80th percentile of the projected outcome. Lines move — check your book before betting.

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